For Islamist extremist actors, attacking religious targets serves a strategic purpose due to the symbolic value and the victimization impact caused. While Christmas-related attacks have more frequently concerned European security authorities, Easter-related threats are not unprecedented.

The 2019 Sri Lanka Easter Sunday Bombings, involved coordinated suicide attacks against churches during services across multiple locations. Similarly, the Palm Sunday attack in Makassar, Indonesia, in 2021, saw Jamaah Ansharut Daulah (an ISIS-affiliated network) carry out a suicide bombing at a cathedral entrance.

Christian religious sites remain soft targets in the current heightened threat landscape. The upcoming Catholic Easter period in Europe presents a terrorism risk, partly due to the escalation of the Iran-linked conflict. Iran-linked networks have long be reported as active in Europe, possibly operating through proxy structures and with hybrid activities. Although high risk targets remain Jewish or Israeli-linked sites, the spillover risk to Christians cannot be ignored, especially during high-profile religious observances, like during Easter.

At the same time, Daesh has just called on Muslims to ‘set fire to churches and synagogues’ around the world during Easter, citing the closure of the Al-Aqsa Mosque by Israeli authorities as justification. This call reinforces the usual decentralised, lone actor, low-tech attack modus operandi, that  typically includes knife attacks, vehicle rammings, etc. Europe has already experienced such attacks: in 2020, three people were killed inside a church in Nice by an Islamist attacker, while in 2016, an 84-year-old priest was murdered and four other people taken hostage by two armed men who stormed a church in Rouen. Moreover, there have been numerous plots targeting churches, religious events and locations culturally or commercially connected to Christian celebrations (e.g. Christmas markets) have been disrupted across Europe (for example: the Vienna Christmas market plot in December 2019 and the Strasbourg bombing plot in 2000). Beyond Europe, attacks against Christian populations are a common tactic by jihadist organisations globally. In 2025, for example, a Daesh linked attack on Mar Elias Church in Damascus killed over 30 worshippers during liturgy.

However, the threat landscape is not limited to attacks strictly defined as terrorism. Hate crimes commited against them should be taken into account in the framework of a broader anti-Christian sentiment. A European Parliament resolution in January urged the European Commission to appoint a coordinator to combat anti-Christian intolerance in the EU. Furthermore, a report by the Organisation on Security and Co-operation in Europe showed growing anti-Christian incidents that reflected “broader societal divisions, systemic prejudice and rising intolerance” and at the same time been being “downplayed, under-reported or politically overlooked”.  Individuals or small groups, with no formal terrorist affiliation and a range of motivations (anti-religious sentiment, anti-clericalism, satanic cult ideology, etc.) may carry out arson, vandalism and desecration, to destroy the solemnity of Easter period.

Security services face the recurring challenge of lone actors capable of rapid mobilisation with minimal preparation. Religious services concentrate large crowds in predictable environments, which cannot all be effectively monitored or protected. From a criminological perspective, this reflects a classic application of routine activity, with motivated actors, suitable targets, and limited guardianship. It is not feasible for European states to offer continuous surveillance or physical protection of all churches, clergy and congregation. Enhanced protection can be provided for major cathedrals, symbolically significant religious and cultural sites, as well as high-profile religious figures, yet most places of worship shall inevitably remain relatively exposed to danger.

Easter 2026 should therefore be understood not only as a major religious observance for Christians in Europe, but also as a period of increased vulnerability within the European security landscape, requiring from security authorities heightened awareness and targeted preventive measures.